Details » The Edge
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- Description: Americas Army Clan
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- Created On: Jan 6, 2007
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Журнал mitiapopoy Создан 2010-09-04 28 записей в журнале13 комментариев получено1 515 комментариев отправленоДрузья (23): artasaov, exler, holmogor, ibigdan, krispotupcheg,, md_prokhorov, navalny, netesov, radulova, roizman, rychkoff, sadalskij, sterligov, Судя по таким друзьям и такому профилю тут не о "контроле" надо говорить,а Диагноз ставить.
JMG,I agree. Human societies seem to be far more relsiient than most people give them credit for (including myself, when I started thinking about these issues). So I try to make allowances for that in my mental model.The great flaw of fast collapse models, as I've pointed out repeatedly, is that they require everyone to sit on their hands as the world falls apart. History shows us that that doesn't happen in the real world.The one issue that I have with this reasoning is that I'm not sure how much historical precedent can be safely applied to our current situation. You are indubitably right to at least some extent, but I see several closely related factors that might lead to a faster or harder collapse than history would otherwise suggest:1. Degree of overshoot: Human populations have gone into ecological overshoot before, but as far as I know we have never been nearly as far into overshoot as we are now. You can push the boundaries of the ecological envelope much further using fossil fuels than you can with merely wood and muscle power. If the infrastructure decays gracefully, then it won't matter much. But if its function breaks down abruptly, we may suddenly discover that the ground is further away than we thought.2. Degree of gobalization and specialization: Historically, societies were less interdepedent, and each community was less specialized in terms of what it produced. This was a natural function of the limitations of lower technology, but it leaves us more vulnerable than history suggests.3. Focus on efficiency and optimization: Similar to my previous point, but occurring within systems rather than between them. Modern capitalist societies are obsessed with (capital) efficiency, which means (among other things) squeezing out as much redundancy and as much slack as possible. This gets you a better short-term return, but makes your culture less relsiient.4. High fabricatory depth of modern technology: This is another interdependence function - simply the fact that to make anything using modern technology, you need upteen precursor technologies to be available to you: simple stuff like steel for knives to complex stuff like needing a cleanroom to manufacture solid state tech. As catabolic collapse starts to bite, the loss of a critical technology could chop entire sections off our tech tree very abruptly.None of these issues are news to you, I know. And all of them are things that could in theory be managed as part of a graceful catabolic collapse scenario, if the cultures involved adopt the right priorities and make the right choices. However, the evidence so far indicates that most developed nations, and particularly the USA, will react to the coming pinch exactly backwards of what is sensible: we ignore our bridges and power infrastructure, and buy ipads instead.If we persist with this bass-ackward set of priorities, I think it is certainly possible that we could wake up and find ourselves in the early iron age (plus salvage tech, of which there will be a lot initially) very quickly. It would require a heroic level of denial and delusion, but what I've seen so far indicates that we may be up to the challenge.
etot kurginyan sodalt rothschildov! ego tozhe raskrutshiwaut w Rossii dlja psewdosozialisma po trotskomu (nowi tolpolitarism) i raswala Rossii (revoluzia kak eto uzhe bilo) Info pro kurginyana na KPE. ru !!!Dmitri Slawoljubov ..wash bibleiski projekt w rasnowidnoi forme skoro prowaliza i washa psewdowlast (kapitalism, pwsewdosozialism gde toka elita rulit a ne narod..) isbrannix balnix skoro bolshe nebudet